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2020 US Senate Elections

 

Published 8/14/2020
Journalist: John M Disque

There's a lot of talk about flipping the US Senate but the most educated political pros are saying the Democratic Party has to get more focused and serious.

As Joe Biden lays the groundwork for a stable White House administration, more and more energy has to be put on handing Biden a bright blue Democratic Congress and most of that energy should be on the US Senate.

33 Senate Seats are up for grabs on November 3, 2020 and 2 more special elections will be held in Arizona and Georgia. Of those 35 seats 12 are currently held by the Democratic Party and 23 are held by the Republican Party.

A US Senate term is 6 years and in the 2014 midterm Republicans took advantage of the notoriously “absent mid-term Democratic voters” and picked up 9 new seats. This embarrassing result leaves us today with 53 Republican Senators, 45 Democratic Senators and 2 Independents, giving the Republican Party full majority control to block all Democratic Progress.

What once seemed like a pipe-dream is becoming more of a reality everyday and Mitch McConnell may-well be in the beginning stages of losing all control.


McConnell is sweating it and advising Republican Senate hopefuls to break association with Trump, but they’re not heeding the call. They continue to run ads in support of Trump and in states where the citizens are at their breaking point.

Trump’s handling of Coronavirus is his biggest downfall. Many longtime Republican citizens could tolerate his adolescent  nature and his chronic narcissism but they’re having trouble blowing off a destroyed economy and the increased risk of their loved-one’s health. “Things will get better when the weather gets warm,” just isn’t paying the bills. The loss of their careers and homes is not a hoax and Trump’s cavalier attitude is not helping. 40 million Americans are in real jeopardy of losing everything they worked for their entire adult lives and Trump's “Oh well," response isn’t helping.

What States Are Going To Flip?

With 23 Senate seats currently occupied by the Republican Party and up for reelection.., it's obvious they have far more to lose than Democrats.

 

Furthermore 11 of the 12 Democratic seats up for reelection are secure, while 8 Republican seats are very vulnerable to being flipped.


We can take for granted that the two independents in the Senate will side with the Democratic Party, and a quick look through history shows us they almost always do.


If the Democratic Party can keep all 12 of their occupied seats.., they would have to flip 4 vulnerable Republican seats to gain Senate majority. If they lose their own vulnerable seat (Alabama) they would have to flip 5 Republican seats.

 

Another scenario…  We could wind up with a 50/50 split in the US Senate, but this too would be considered a Republican loss if Joe Biden wins the White House, which most are predicting will happen. In the event of a split Senate Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the deciding vote, leaving Kamala with a very, very busy first two years in the white House, (until the 2022 midterms result in a majority).

Republican Senate Seats Up For Grabs

State Senator Status Notes
Alaska Dan Sullivan Vulnerable Sullivan's last election in 2014 was close and Alaska's often silent base is currently being devistated by Trump's incompetence.
Arizona Martha McSally Vulnerable McSally's seat is one of the most volnerale in the country. Democratic challenger Mark Kelly (former Astronaut) is a clear favorite to win. Kelly does not take PAC donations and is funding his campaign on almost nothing but small donations. He's a hit with both Democrats and Independent and has even managed to pull a few Republicans to the other side.
Arkansas Tom Cotton Secure  
Colorado Cory Gardner Vulnerable  
Georgia David Perdue Vulnerable  
Georgia Kelly Loeffler Vulnerable  
Idaho Jim Risch Secure  
Iowa Joni Ernst Secure  
Kansas Pat roberts Secure  
Kentucky Mitch McConnell Secure During the start of the year and through the Spring..., there was a lot of talk about McConnell being beaten by Democratic nominee Amy McGrath but the vicious primary smear campaign by Charles Booker put an end to all that.
Although Amy won the nomination.... Booker's tactics were successful and any swing-voter in Kentucky is back in McConnell's corner.
Some say Booker was McConnell's hired ace, and I wouldn't doubt it, but it's more likely that he simply doesn't know what he's doing. He could've won by going after McConnell, but he targeted Amy and that's why he lost. Still.... the damge is clear.
Loisianna Bill Cassidy Secure  
Maine Susan Collins Vulnerable  
Mississippi Cindy  Hyde-Smith Secure  
Montana Steve Daines Vulnerable  
Nebraska Ben Sasse Secure  
North Carolina Thom Tillis Vulnerable If we had to pick one state that's a must win it's NC. Support for Tillis has been dwindling for a long time and NC is ready for a change.
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Secure  
South Carolina Lindsey Graham Secure  
South Dakota Mike Rounds Secure  
Tennessee Lamar Alexander Secure Alexander is retiring his seat, but if you thought that left an open door for Democrats to flip it blue..., you should probably think again.
Bill Haggerty is campiagning hard in Tennessee's many rural districts and is almost a sure win.
Tennessee is progressing but it's at a snail's pace.
As for Trump - he too will win TN, but he's going to get a big eye-opener and it won't be close to the magin he won the state in 2016..., but that's another article.
Texas Jim Cornyn Secure  
West Virgina Shelley Moore Capito Secure  
Wyoming Mike Enzi Secure  

Democratic Senate Seats Up For Grabs

State Senator Status Notes
Alabama Doug Jones Vulnerable Jones won his seat in 2017 by only 1.7%. Since that time, and despite Trump's failure, Alabama has become even more red. Democrats are going to have trouble holding-on to Jones.
Jones is being challenged by a very popular opponent (Tommy Uberville - Auburn Iniv. football coach)
.
Delaware Chris Coons Secure  
Illinois Dick Durbin Secure  
Massachusetts Ed Markley Secure  
Michigan Gary Peters Secure  
Minnesota Tina Smith Secure  
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Secure  
New Jersey Cory Booker Secure  
New Mexico Tom Udall Secure  
Oregon Jeff Merkley Secure  
Rhode Island Jack Reed Secure  
Virgina Mark Warner Secure  

Wrapping it up.... for now.

A lot can change between now and November 3rd, but this is currently where we stand.

Nothing is certain in the age of Trumpism, but there are some clear reasons for the Democratic Party to be optimistic.

America has had enough. They want their lives back and the Republican Party is feeling the shift.

 

Now, more than ever, the Democratic candidats in the pink states have to hit hard and reach voters on the topics of this increasing health crisis, the failed economy, growing racial tension, unaffordable education and healthcare.

These states are tired of promise-makers - they want to see platforms reflecting clear-cut plans of action. They need hope for a better tomorrow. They're ready for change and it's all in the hands of Democratic voters.

John Disque is a published American author and journalist specializing in social issues and politics.

He's also a semi-pro pool player and photographer that can be found on most social media networks including Youtube.

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